TopStreaksToday's Value Bets - Where the Odds Don't Match Reality
We compare our probability model against bookmaker odds to find opportunities with 5%+ edge
17
Value Bets Found
7.8%
Average Edge
17.9%
Highest Edge
Updated: 15:44
What is Value Betting?
A value bet exists when our calculated probability is higher than the bookmaker's implied probability (1 ÷ decimal odds).
Example:
If we calculate 50% probability and odds are 2.40, that's a 41% implied probability - giving you a 9% edge.
🔥 HIGH VALUE (17.9% Edge)
Liga MX
Cruz AzulNecaxa
🕐01:00
📍Estadio Azteca
VALUE BET:
BTTS - Yes
Our Probability
75%
Bookmaker Odds
1.75
(57% implied)
Edge
+17.9%
Why This Is Value
- ✓Our model: 75% win probability based on 5 factors
- ✓Bookmaker odds imply only 57% probability
- ✓17.9 percentage point gap = significant value
Key Factors Driving Our Probability
•Cruz Azul unbeaten in 3 home games
•High BTTS probability (75%)
•5-factor algorithm analysis
•Regression to mean favors this outcome
Confidence Level
75%
★★★★☆
Recommended Stake
High (3-5% of bankroll)
Bet365🔥 HIGH VALUE (15.4% Edge)
Ligue 2
BoulogneDunkerque
🕐18:45
📍Stade de la Libération
VALUE BET:
BTTS - Yes
Our Probability
70%
Bookmaker Odds
1.83
(55% implied)
Edge
+15.4%
Why This Is Value
- ✓Our model: 70% win probability based on 5 factors
- ✓Bookmaker odds imply only 55% probability
- ✓15.4 percentage point gap = significant value
Key Factors Driving Our Probability
•Boulogne unbeaten in 3 home games
•5-factor algorithm analysis
•Regression to mean favors this outcome
Confidence Level
70%
★★★★☆
Recommended Stake
High (3-5% of bankroll)
Bet365🔥 HIGH VALUE (15.1% Edge)
Liga Leumit
Hapoel Kfar SabaHapoel Rishon LeZion
🕐16:00
VALUE BET:
BTTS - Yes
Our Probability
75%
Bookmaker Odds
1.67
(60% implied)
Edge
+15.1%
Why This Is Value
- ✓Our model: 75% win probability based on 5 factors
- ✓Bookmaker odds imply only 60% probability
- ✓15.1 percentage point gap = significant value
Key Factors Driving Our Probability
•Hapoel Kfar Saba won 3 in a row. Hapoel Rishon LeZion unbeaten in 4 away games
•High BTTS probability (75%)
•5-factor algorithm analysis
•Regression to mean favors this outcome
Confidence Level
75%
★★★★☆
Recommended Stake
High (3-5% of bankroll)
Bet365🔥 MEDIUM VALUE (14.4% Edge)
Liga Leumit
Kiryat Yam SCMaccabi Herzliya
🕐16:00
VALUE BET:
BTTS - Yes
Our Probability
70%
Bookmaker Odds
1.80
(56% implied)
Edge
+14.4%
Why This Is Value
- ✓Our model: 70% win probability based on 5 factors
- ✓Bookmaker odds imply only 56% probability
- ✓14.4 percentage point gap = significant value
Key Factors Driving Our Probability
•Maccabi Herzliya scored in 7 straight matches
•5-factor algorithm analysis
•Regression to mean favors this outcome
Confidence Level
70%
★★★★☆
Recommended Stake
Medium (2-3% of bankroll)
Bet365🔥 LOW VALUE (9.4% Edge)
Süper Lig
AlanyasporSamsunspor
🕐14:00LIVE
📍Alanya Oba Stadium
VALUE BET:
BTTS - Yes
Our Probability
65%
Bookmaker Odds
1.80
(56% implied)
Edge
+9.4%
Why This Is Value
- ✓Our model: 65% win probability based on 5 factors
- ✓Bookmaker odds imply only 56% probability
- ✓9.4 percentage point gap = significant value
Key Factors Driving Our Probability
•Alanyaspor unbeaten in 3 home games. Samsunspor scored in 6 straight matches
•5-factor algorithm analysis
•Regression to mean favors this outcome
Confidence Level
65%
★★★☆☆
Recommended Stake
Low (1-2% of bankroll)
Bet365🔥 LOW VALUE (5.0% Edge)
Serie A
CagliariAtalanta
🕐16:30
📍Unipol Domus
VALUE BET:
Atalanta Win
Our Probability
62%
Bookmaker Odds
1.75
(57% implied)
Edge
+5.0%
Why This Is Value
- ✓Our model: 62% win probability based on 5 factors
- ✓Bookmaker odds imply only 57% probability
- ✓5.0 percentage point gap = significant value
Key Factors Driving Our Probability
•Atalanta unbeaten in 3 away games
•5-factor algorithm analysis
•Regression to mean favors this outcome
Confidence Level
60%
★★★☆☆
Recommended Stake
Low (1-2% of bankroll)
Bet365🔥 LOW VALUE (5.0% Edge)
Süper Lig
BeşiktaşFatih Karagümrük
🕐17:00
📍Tupras Stadium
VALUE BET:
Beşiktaş Win
Our Probability
80%
Bookmaker Odds
1.33
(75% implied)
Edge
+5.0%
Why This Is Value
- ✓Our model: 80% win probability based on 5 factors
- ✓Bookmaker odds imply only 75% probability
- ✓5.0 percentage point gap = significant value
Key Factors Driving Our Probability
•No significant streaks detected.
•5-factor algorithm analysis
•Regression to mean favors this outcome
Confidence Level
80%
★★★★★
Recommended Stake
Low (1-2% of bankroll)
Bet365🔥 LOW VALUE (5.0% Edge)
Segunda División
CadizLas Palmas
🕐18:30
📍JP Financial Estadio
VALUE BET:
Las Palmas Win
Our Probability
52%
Bookmaker Odds
2.15
(47% implied)
Edge
+5.0%
Why This Is Value
- ✓Our model: 52% win probability based on 5 factors
- ✓Bookmaker odds imply only 47% probability
- ✓5.0 percentage point gap = significant value
Key Factors Driving Our Probability
•No significant streaks detected.
•5-factor algorithm analysis
•Regression to mean favors this outcome
Confidence Level
50%
★★☆☆☆
Recommended Stake
Low (1-2% of bankroll)
Bet365🔥 LOW VALUE (5.0% Edge)
Serie A
LazioUdinese
🕐18:45
📍Stadio Olimpico
VALUE BET:
Lazio Win
Our Probability
55%
Bookmaker Odds
2.00
(50% implied)
Edge
+5.0%
Why This Is Value
- ✓Our model: 55% win probability based on 5 factors
- ✓Bookmaker odds imply only 50% probability
- ✓5.0 percentage point gap = significant value
Key Factors Driving Our Probability
•Lazio unbeaten in 3 home games. Udinese unbeaten in 3 away games
•5-factor algorithm analysis
•Regression to mean favors this outcome
Confidence Level
55%
★★☆☆☆
Recommended Stake
Low (1-2% of bankroll)
Bet365🔥 LOW VALUE (5.0% Edge)
La Liga
EspanyolLevante
🕐19:00
📍RCDE Stadium
VALUE BET:
Espanyol Win
Our Probability
55%
Bookmaker Odds
2.00
(50% implied)
Edge
+5.0%
Why This Is Value
- ✓Our model: 55% win probability based on 5 factors
- ✓Bookmaker odds imply only 50% probability
- ✓5.0 percentage point gap = significant value
Key Factors Driving Our Probability
•No significant streaks detected.
•5-factor algorithm analysis
•Regression to mean favors this outcome
Confidence Level
55%
★★☆☆☆
Recommended Stake
Low (1-2% of bankroll)
Bet365🔥 LOW VALUE (5.0% Edge)
Premier League
Manchester UnitedBrentford
🕐19:00
📍Old Trafford
VALUE BET:
Manchester United Win
Our Probability
59%
Bookmaker Odds
1.85
(54% implied)
Edge
+5.0%
Why This Is Value
- ✓Our model: 59% win probability based on 5 factors
- ✓Bookmaker odds imply only 54% probability
- ✓5.0 percentage point gap = significant value
Key Factors Driving Our Probability
•Manchester United scored in 10 straight matches. Brentford unbeaten in 5 away games
•5-factor algorithm analysis
•Regression to mean favors this outcome
Confidence Level
60%
★★★☆☆
Recommended Stake
Low (1-2% of bankroll)
Bet365🔥 LOW VALUE (5.0% Edge)
Liga Nacional
GénesisVictoria
🕐21:30
📍Estadio Roberto Suazo Cordova
VALUE BET:
Génesis Win
Our Probability
64%
Bookmaker Odds
1.70
(59% implied)
Edge
+5.0%
Why This Is Value
- ✓Our model: 64% win probability based on 5 factors
- ✓Bookmaker odds imply only 59% probability
- ✓5.0 percentage point gap = significant value
Key Factors Driving Our Probability
•No significant streaks detected.
•5-factor algorithm analysis
•Regression to mean favors this outcome
Confidence Level
65%
★★★☆☆
Recommended Stake
Low (1-2% of bankroll)
Bet365🔥 LOW VALUE (5.0% Edge)
Liga Profesional Argentina
Velez SarsfieldUnion Santa Fe
🕐21:45
VALUE BET:
Velez Sarsfield Win
Our Probability
50%
Bookmaker Odds
2.20
(45% implied)
Edge
+5.0%
Why This Is Value
- ✓Our model: 50% win probability based on 5 factors
- ✓Bookmaker odds imply only 45% probability
- ✓5.0 percentage point gap = significant value
Key Factors Driving Our Probability
•No significant streaks detected.
•5-factor algorithm analysis
•Regression to mean favors this outcome
Confidence Level
50%
★★☆☆☆
Recommended Stake
Low (1-2% of bankroll)
Bet365🔥 LOW VALUE (5.0% Edge)
Primera A
Internacional de BogotaChico
🕐01:20
📍Estadio Metropolitano de Techo
VALUE BET:
Internacional de Bogota Win
Our Probability
70%
Bookmaker Odds
1.55
(65% implied)
Edge
+5.0%
Why This Is Value
- ✓Our model: 70% win probability based on 5 factors
- ✓Bookmaker odds imply only 65% probability
- ✓5.0 percentage point gap = significant value
Key Factors Driving Our Probability
•No significant streaks detected.
•5-factor algorithm analysis
•Regression to mean favors this outcome
Confidence Level
70%
★★★★☆
Recommended Stake
Low (1-2% of bankroll)
Bet365🔥 LOW VALUE (5.0% Edge)
Liga Nacional
JuticalpaLobos Upnfm
🕐01:30
📍Estadio Juan Ramon Breve Vargas
VALUE BET:
Juticalpa Win
Our Probability
55%
Bookmaker Odds
2.00
(50% implied)
Edge
+5.0%
Why This Is Value
- ✓Our model: 55% win probability based on 5 factors
- ✓Bookmaker odds imply only 50% probability
- ✓5.0 percentage point gap = significant value
Key Factors Driving Our Probability
•No significant streaks detected.
•5-factor algorithm analysis
•Regression to mean favors this outcome
Confidence Level
55%
★★☆☆☆
Recommended Stake
Low (1-2% of bankroll)
TopStreaks model
View Detailed Analysis🔥 LOW VALUE (5.0% Edge)
First League
Torpedo MoskvaFakel
🕐14:30LIVE
📍Arena Khimki
VALUE BET:
Torpedo Moskva Win
Our Probability
55%
Bookmaker Odds
2.00
(50% implied)
Edge
+5.0%
Why This Is Value
- ✓Our model: 55% win probability based on 5 factors
- ✓Bookmaker odds imply only 50% probability
- ✓5.0 percentage point gap = significant value
Key Factors Driving Our Probability
•Torpedo Moskva unbeaten in 4 home games
•5-factor algorithm analysis
•Regression to mean favors this outcome
Confidence Level
55%
★★☆☆☆
Recommended Stake
Low (1-2% of bankroll)
TopStreaks model
View Detailed Analysis🔥 LOW VALUE (5.0% Edge)
Liga Leumit
Bnei YehudaHapoel Ramat Gan
🕐16:00
VALUE BET:
Hapoel Ramat Gan Win
Our Probability
52%
Bookmaker Odds
2.15
(47% implied)
Edge
+5.0%
Why This Is Value
- ✓Our model: 52% win probability based on 5 factors
- ✓Bookmaker odds imply only 47% probability
- ✓5.0 percentage point gap = significant value
Key Factors Driving Our Probability
•Bnei Yehuda scored in 6 straight matches. Hapoel Ramat Gan won 3 in a row
•5-factor algorithm analysis
•Regression to mean favors this outcome
Confidence Level
50%
★★☆☆☆
Recommended Stake
Low (1-2% of bankroll)
Bet365Value Betting 101
How to Calculate Value
Value = (Our Prob - Implied Prob) × 100
If value is positive, the bet has expected value.
Why Value Betting Works Long-Term
Over time, consistently betting on value opportunities will yield positive returns, even if individual bets lose. The key is bankroll management and patience.
How We Calculate Our Probabilities
Our 5-factor algorithm considers: regression to mean, opponent strength, venue context, H2H history, and recent form.
⚠️ Important: Value Betting & Bankroll Management
Value bets are not guaranteed wins. They represent long-term profitable opportunities when bet consistently. Always:
•Bet only what you can afford to lose
•Use proper bankroll management (1-5% per bet)
•Understand variance - short-term losses are normal
•Never chase losses